***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 24.5 54.6 41.6 281.4 91.9 85.4 3.0 7.6 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 15.7 28.8 30.7 230.0 88.1 78.2 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 23.1 56.9 46.6 309.4 93.2 86.1 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 25.0 56.0 46.0 294.9 92.9 87.6 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 17.1 40.7 51.4 346.7 94.9 91.1 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 21.9 46.4 46.5 306.2 93.8 90.9 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 19.4 34.7 31.2 233.8 88.3 78.0 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 31.3 66.4 65.9 324.1 94.0 91.5 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 20.7 55.8 59.1 359.6 95.3 92.0 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 28.1 70.2 72.0 344.3 94.7 92.1 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 18.4 48.4 56.6 380.0 95.8 92.1 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 22.2 58.2 50.8 345.8 95.0 91.9 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 14.6 33.7 46.2 337.9 94.6 91.1 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 31.9 64.1 58.5 276.6 91.4 86.1 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 15.4 35.2 44.0 336.8 93.9 88.4 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 11.7 25.2 45.3 333.6 94.6 91.0 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 22.5 38.1 27.1 217.1 86.6 74.5 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 31.8 74.0 68.9 315.5 94.2 91.4 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 22.9 44.3 35.0 247.4 89.5 80.4 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 19.7 37.3 66.4 285.3 92.8 89.6 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 21.3 52.3 54.7 357.4 95.3 91.0 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 23.0 40.1 27.6 215.0 86.5 72.4 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 21.9 46.9 41.7 272.9 91.4 83.4 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 28.1 65.4 57.6 308.7 93.4 88.9 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 23.1 49.0 45.3 294.3 92.5 87.2 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 19.2 32.6 28.3 255.1 90.0 84.4 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 21.1 42.7 41.2 270.5 91.0 84.9 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 22.1 51.8 48.6 337.3 94.6 90.0 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 37.9 73.7 64.5 293.6 93.2 90.3 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 20.8 38.4 34.3 243.8 89.1 79.6 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------