***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.6 29.0 21.4 221.6 87.2 69.8 3.9 7.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 20.0 40.2 18.5 237.6 89.0 71.6 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 16.3 31.9 24.3 253.1 90.1 74.5 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 18.7 39.7 24.6 292.9 92.1 83.7 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 15.9 31.7 24.4 268.8 90.7 79.9 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 16.9 29.5 22.9 237.6 88.6 79.8 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.2 27.7 17.0 216.9 86.8 63.2 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 22.7 42.8 23.6 230.6 87.8 76.9 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 16.4 32.2 26.5 275.0 91.3 77.7 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 19.2 33.8 25.8 241.6 88.4 76.5 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 15.8 29.5 22.2 226.5 87.9 76.8 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 15.9 30.5 21.7 250.1 89.7 78.6 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 13.7 26.6 20.8 251.8 89.8 79.8 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 20.0 39.1 24.9 221.5 87.3 72.3 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 12.5 24.8 19.1 268.8 91.0 81.9 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 15.5 29.1 21.2 252.4 89.9 80.0 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 18.2 29.4 16.3 200.4 84.9 66.5 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 18.6 35.5 29.9 246.8 89.6 78.3 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 19.7 41.1 19.2 241.1 89.3 71.8 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 17.4 26.1 25.9 211.9 86.9 77.4 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 14.7 30.6 24.0 248.5 89.5 73.9 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 13.4 20.7 16.6 194.7 84.4 67.6 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 16.2 35.2 22.2 252.8 90.2 74.3 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 15.8 29.6 28.5 249.5 90.0 76.3 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.8 30.8 23.3 220.9 87.5 74.5 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.2 27.3 20.7 242.8 89.8 80.1 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 18.5 33.9 22.1 209.7 86.0 71.0 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 14.1 28.9 22.0 289.3 92.0 83.1 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 27.1 46.4 29.7 226.3 88.3 78.0 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 13.8 27.8 20.5 246.8 89.6 70.8 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------