***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 20.9 13.5 163.7 79.9 59.2 3.3 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.2 20.9 12.7 161.3 79.4 56.4 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 14.6 20.5 13.8 166.0 80.3 60.2 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 21.1 31.2 15.1 187.4 83.2 65.8 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.1 17.7 14.2 173.7 81.2 64.1 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 19.2 24.9 14.5 160.8 79.1 64.7 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.8 13.1 11.4 146.2 76.8 50.8 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 23.4 32.1 16.5 189.8 82.8 63.9 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.6 24.3 15.4 180.2 82.2 64.5 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 20.0 27.2 16.9 177.9 81.7 63.0 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.4 21.2 11.3 150.9 77.6 58.1 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 15.8 22.9 14.1 196.2 83.6 65.4 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 16.5 26.5 14.8 193.8 84.1 66.0 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.8 23.4 18.5 175.0 81.6 60.7 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.9 33.4 12.9 226.6 87.4 66.7 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 13.2 18.2 12.9 173.2 81.2 64.9 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 21.7 11.9 157.5 78.8 54.0 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 18.1 25.6 21.0 191.1 83.8 67.1 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.0 22.6 13.4 167.6 80.5 57.0 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 16.5 23.3 19.9 182.0 82.7 65.7 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 17.6 24.3 14.3 172.1 81.1 62.1 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.0 23.2 14.9 179.9 82.3 57.2 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.7 18.4 13.8 165.6 80.1 56.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 23.3 32.2 18.1 174.2 81.4 64.2 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 15.8 22.9 16.2 183.1 82.6 65.9 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.4 26.1 13.4 206.4 85.5 66.0 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 14.3 19.6 15.0 170.2 80.8 62.3 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 15.9 26.1 13.9 200.0 84.3 64.9 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 23.1 31.2 21.3 182.8 82.8 67.3 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.0 13.1 12.6 154.9 78.3 55.9 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------