***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 13.1 17.8 11.7 160.4 79.3 55.9 2.2 5.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 14.9 11.0 150.4 77.6 53.9 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 15.0 19.8 12.2 162.9 79.6 56.9 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.0 17.9 13.2 184.0 82.8 60.3 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.9 10.5 12.5 177.4 81.8 59.1 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.2 14.6 14.1 177.5 81.9 61.6 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.1 11.6 11.3 150.6 77.6 51.2 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 15.4 22.9 15.0 176.8 81.9 59.7 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.4 13.8 13.2 174.4 81.4 59.0 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.5 21.4 15.5 173.5 81.4 59.5 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.5 10.8 165.8 80.2 56.0 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.1 10.7 11.7 181.7 82.6 58.8 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 8.1 13.0 12.5 182.1 82.6 61.0 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.6 22.0 16.7 164.1 79.9 57.6 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 17.0 11.1 195.6 84.3 56.7 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.2 12.1 11.2 170.8 80.9 59.5 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.9 8.5 10.9 137.3 75.1 50.2 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.4 14.1 18.0 171.3 81.0 62.4 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 10.9 13.6 11.1 151.5 77.8 55.1 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 13.9 16.6 17.5 146.1 76.5 59.5 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 13.4 20.4 12.9 178.9 82.1 58.3 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.9 11.4 137.9 75.3 52.3 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.3 13.3 11.5 149.6 77.5 55.7 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 15.8 21.8 15.7 169.6 80.7 60.0 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.3 15.4 13.3 174.0 81.3 60.0 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.8 10.7 11.7 200.8 84.9 59.8 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 21.4 12.7 164.1 79.9 56.8 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.5 12.4 12.4 191.3 83.7 59.3 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 14.3 18.8 18.4 161.8 79.4 61.7 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.0 17.5 11.2 150.8 77.7 54.8 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------