***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 78.2 136.6 88.3 220.9 90.6 85.0 18.4 34.7 57.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 70.6 107.6 73.0 200.8 88.7 81.0 24.0 38.6 57.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 75.4 123.3 96.8 239.9 92.3 86.8 27.8 42.4 60.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 84.2 148.6 98.9 252.1 93.1 89.1 25.1 41.9 63.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 57.7 104.9 102.5 261.8 93.9 90.1 18.0 29.4 43.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 74.9 122.1 98.1 234.9 92.8 89.7 24.8 38.8 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 58.8 84.7 70.9 194.5 87.5 79.5 22.5 34.5 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 100.6 166.3 121.1 255.0 94.6 91.6 40.1 57.8 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 67.4 121.5 114.2 271.0 94.9 90.8 25.6 38.2 53.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 89.7 169.9 130.2 261.0 94.9 91.3 28.9 46.2 68.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 65.8 121.3 101.0 258.8 94.1 90.6 19.4 32.3 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 67.7 127.4 98.3 265.7 94.5 91.7 19.3 32.4 49.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 60.0 99.9 94.2 259.1 93.7 90.7 20.5 31.7 45.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 92.5 150.1 118.6 223.6 91.6 85.8 32.4 50.6 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 61.6 114.1 87.2 275.8 93.7 89.1 18.6 30.8 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 54.8 92.1 90.6 251.5 93.2 90.1 17.9 28.2 41.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 65.6 84.0 66.3 183.4 85.7 76.3 32.4 44.1 57.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 82.0 142.8 137.8 248.2 94.7 90.9 31.2 46.4 64.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 77.1 126.5 78.8 210.5 90.0 82.3 23.7 40.1 61.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 70.4 107.7 129.7 221.3 93.2 89.8 30.5 42.9 56.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 72.6 121.1 105.8 261.7 93.6 89.2 28.8 42.5 58.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 64.7 85.9 70.4 185.7 86.4 76.4 30.4 42.5 56.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 69.2 112.1 89.2 222.6 91.2 83.9 23.6 37.4 54.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 86.6 136.6 119.9 241.3 93.4 88.5 38.2 53.8 71.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 71.3 111.4 98.1 231.5 91.7 87.2 27.1 40.5 56.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 62.2 94.8 74.1 232.0 91.3 86.7 20.9 32.8 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 77.9 119.2 91.1 215.2 90.1 84.6 27.3 42.7 62.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 66.1 126.7 96.9 273.6 94.1 90.4 18.0 31.2 48.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 102.7 157.5 133.9 230.3 93.7 89.7 46.9 64.5 84.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 65.7 104.0 78.6 207.1 89.4 82.5 20.0 33.7 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------