***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.8 20.0 1.0 73.7 70.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.1 19.2 0.3 56.3 55.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 18.6 18.6 19.9 0.7 66.9 64.6 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 14.8 15.2 17.9 1.1 78.2 75.3 12.6 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 15.3 15.6 18.4 1.2 78.7 75.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 14.1 14.2 15.2 0.6 67.9 66.3 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 16.3 16.8 19.6 0.6 64.5 62.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 9.3 9.5 14.9 0.4 60.4 59.2 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 16.4 16.9 18.6 1.2 82.4 79.0 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 15.6 16.0 16.2 0.6 66.7 64.9 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.3 17.9 1.0 77.1 74.6 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.2 14.3 16.5 0.9 72.6 70.6 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.4 16.5 0.6 70.6 68.6 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.4 16.6 17.5 0.4 60.2 58.8 15.6 16.2 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 18.3 19.4 20.2 1.7 91.5 88.9 16.2 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 16.7 17.1 17.5 1.1 80.6 77.8 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.8 16.8 18.8 0.1 53.4 52.8 16.0 16.7 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 14.1 14.4 15.3 0.3 60.4 59.4 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.2 19.3 0.4 59.2 57.7 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 10.2 10.4 13.3 0.3 58.0 57.3 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.4 19.4 1.0 75.1 72.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.7 15.5 18.9 0.0 49.3 49.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.5 16.0 19.6 0.7 67.9 65.2 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.5 17.6 0.5 63.1 61.7 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.6 19.2 1.2 76.8 73.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.6 15.7 0.9 75.9 73.2 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.8 19.6 1.1 76.1 72.5 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 15.6 16.1 18.6 1.4 83.3 80.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.1 14.2 0.0 51.2 51.2 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.3 16.6 19.7 0.5 62.5 60.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------