***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 17.3 18.0 20.5 1.5 81.5 70.2 15.5 16.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.6 19.8 1.1 74.0 65.3 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 19.5 20.1 20.5 1.4 80.5 69.8 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 15.0 16.0 18.3 1.6 85.8 75.9 12.8 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 16.0 17.1 18.5 1.6 85.7 74.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.7 15.4 0.8 72.8 65.8 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 17.5 18.0 20.2 1.3 78.4 69.0 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 10.6 11.1 15.6 1.1 79.2 69.1 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 17.0 18.0 18.7 1.7 88.0 75.6 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.6 16.7 1.3 81.3 70.3 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.5 18.0 1.5 85.4 74.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.4 16.8 1.4 82.7 71.8 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.9 16.0 0.8 71.9 64.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 17.3 17.6 17.7 0.9 73.0 64.6 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 18.1 19.2 19.9 1.7 88.1 77.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 17.4 18.2 17.3 1.3 82.0 72.3 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.7 18.0 19.5 1.0 73.8 65.6 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.3 15.6 0.9 75.0 65.7 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.5 20.0 1.1 75.7 66.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.4 13.4 0.8 71.9 63.6 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.6 19.8 1.5 83.8 72.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.8 19.4 0.8 69.4 63.0 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.8 17.4 20.1 1.4 81.1 71.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 17.1 17.4 17.8 1.0 76.4 67.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.9 19.5 1.6 82.8 71.4 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.7 16.0 15.6 1.0 75.3 66.9 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.5 18.4 19.9 1.5 82.1 70.8 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.8 18.6 1.6 86.4 76.8 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.6 14.7 0.8 71.2 63.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.5 18.0 20.3 1.2 77.0 67.5 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------