***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.5 20.6 1.9 82.9 71.6 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.9 20.0 1.5 77.4 66.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 18.9 19.6 20.7 1.9 83.7 73.1 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 14.6 15.7 18.2 2.0 87.3 77.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 15.5 16.4 18.1 2.1 87.8 77.5 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.5 15.5 1.2 78.0 70.9 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 16.7 17.3 20.3 1.7 79.7 68.8 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 10.1 10.8 15.7 1.6 84.3 74.3 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 16.6 17.6 18.3 2.1 88.6 77.8 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 16.4 17.0 16.5 1.8 85.2 75.2 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 16.1 16.9 17.5 2.0 87.8 77.9 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 14.2 14.8 16.5 1.8 86.1 76.4 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 15.4 15.7 15.4 1.2 78.0 71.2 13.8 14.5 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.8 17.3 17.6 1.4 79.1 70.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.5 18.5 19.4 2.0 87.6 77.9 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 16.9 17.5 16.7 1.7 85.1 76.5 15.3 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.0 17.4 19.6 1.4 76.3 65.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 14.9 15.5 15.3 1.5 81.8 73.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.6 17.1 20.1 1.6 78.9 68.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.8 12.8 1.0 75.3 67.8 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.1 19.7 2.0 86.2 75.3 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.9 16.2 19.4 1.3 75.4 65.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.7 20.1 1.8 82.8 72.4 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 16.7 17.3 17.5 1.6 82.9 73.4 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.5 19.2 1.9 83.7 72.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 15.5 15.9 15.3 1.4 80.3 73.0 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.9 17.9 19.8 2.0 83.2 71.5 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 15.4 16.3 18.4 1.9 86.8 77.3 13.7 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 13.9 14.3 14.6 1.2 78.4 70.6 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.9 17.5 20.4 1.7 79.6 68.9 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------