***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.6 19.5 1.3 72.1 65.0 14.9 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.2 18.9 0.7 63.2 58.4 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.3 19.1 19.6 1.1 70.6 64.1 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 15.2 15.8 17.4 1.5 78.0 70.0 12.9 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 14.8 15.2 17.2 1.4 77.9 69.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.8 14.9 1.0 71.2 65.6 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.5 19.1 0.8 65.3 59.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 9.9 10.3 14.8 1.1 74.0 66.8 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.4 17.3 1.4 77.7 69.1 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.0 15.6 1.1 73.9 66.2 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.7 16.6 1.4 77.6 69.6 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.8 15.6 1.3 76.9 69.1 12.1 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.6 14.7 1.0 70.9 65.1 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.4 16.6 0.7 65.5 60.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 17.2 17.7 18.7 1.5 79.3 71.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.9 16.0 1.3 76.9 69.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.6 18.5 0.6 61.7 57.1 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.2 14.4 0.9 69.6 63.0 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.1 18.9 0.8 64.3 59.4 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.0 12.0 0.7 66.2 61.1 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.9 18.7 1.4 75.1 67.2 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.3 18.3 0.5 60.1 56.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.7 18.9 0.9 67.8 62.1 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.5 16.2 16.5 0.9 69.1 62.5 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.3 18.2 1.4 74.3 66.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.1 14.7 1.1 73.8 66.9 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.0 17.0 18.8 1.3 72.7 65.4 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.1 17.6 1.5 78.4 70.9 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.1 13.7 0.7 66.5 61.0 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.6 19.3 0.9 66.0 60.7 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------