***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 16.5 17.0 20.1 1.4 86.2 77.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.6 19.5 0.9 75.7 67.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 18.7 19.1 20.2 1.3 84.1 75.7 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 14.5 15.5 17.9 1.6 91.5 83.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 15.0 15.8 18.1 1.6 91.6 83.5 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 14.0 14.3 15.2 0.9 82.5 75.1 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 16.6 17.0 19.8 1.1 80.0 71.8 15.6 16.0 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 9.8 10.2 15.3 1.1 85.0 76.2 8.8 9.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 16.2 17.1 18.2 1.6 93.0 84.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 16.1 16.5 16.2 1.2 86.8 78.2 15.1 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 15.8 16.5 17.5 1.5 91.3 83.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 13.9 14.6 16.4 1.3 89.7 81.3 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 15.0 15.4 15.7 0.9 83.4 75.7 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.6 16.8 17.4 0.8 78.1 70.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 17.5 18.7 19.6 1.7 94.7 87.3 16.1 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 16.6 17.3 16.9 1.4 90.6 83.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.1 19.1 0.8 74.1 66.4 16.0 16.4 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.5 14.8 15.1 0.9 81.9 73.7 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.6 19.6 1.0 77.6 69.5 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.6 12.9 0.7 77.3 69.3 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.5 19.4 1.5 89.0 80.4 15.0 15.4 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.8 19.0 0.7 70.1 64.1 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 15.8 16.1 19.7 1.2 83.5 74.9 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.4 16.7 17.3 1.0 82.4 74.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 16.2 16.8 19.0 1.5 88.5 79.3 15.1 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 15.1 15.6 15.3 1.1 87.3 79.5 14.2 14.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 16.5 17.2 19.5 1.5 87.5 78.2 15.2 15.7 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 15.2 16.1 18.3 1.6 92.6 85.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 13.8 13.9 14.3 0.7 75.8 68.9 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 16.6 16.9 19.9 1.1 79.3 71.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------