***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.8 30.3 1.0 64.0 61.9 27.8 28.9 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.2 29.1 29.7 0.3 53.8 53.1 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 29.1 29.6 30.2 0.9 61.1 59.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 24.3 25.0 28.8 2.2 78.3 75.1 20.9 22.4 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.0 31.4 29.4 1.8 72.3 69.9 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 28.5 29.2 26.2 0.9 62.3 61.5 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 28.9 29.0 29.8 0.5 57.1 56.0 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 18.9 18.8 26.7 1.2 66.0 64.6 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 30.6 31.1 30.4 2.0 75.3 72.2 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 30.1 30.3 27.8 1.5 68.2 66.3 27.1 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.1 29.9 1.9 73.7 71.5 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.3 28.5 1.8 72.5 70.5 26.8 28.3 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 31.0 31.2 29.1 1.6 71.9 69.9 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 28.8 29.0 28.4 0.6 57.8 56.7 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 31.9 32.8 31.6 2.4 82.4 78.8 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.1 32.5 29.5 2.0 75.6 73.3 28.5 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.6 28.4 29.2 0.2 53.0 52.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 28.1 28.7 26.3 0.9 60.8 59.6 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.6 28.7 29.8 0.5 55.9 54.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 24.1 24.3 24.0 0.5 57.1 56.8 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 30.3 30.3 30.5 1.3 66.7 64.4 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.4 28.6 -0.3 46.5 46.7 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 28.7 29.4 30.3 1.1 64.4 62.2 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 28.5 29.1 28.5 0.8 60.7 59.3 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.6 30.6 29.5 1.3 68.1 65.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 30.5 30.7 27.9 1.4 69.7 68.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 29.8 29.7 29.7 1.1 65.7 63.2 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 31.8 32.5 29.9 2.2 78.9 76.0 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 23.5 23.8 25.2 0.6 57.1 56.4 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.0 29.9 0.5 56.4 55.3 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------