***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 31.7 33.2 32.7 3.2 88.3 80.0 28.5 29.8 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 31.2 32.2 32.4 2.8 84.1 76.6 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 31.4 32.8 32.9 3.2 87.1 79.0 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 24.7 27.0 31.2 4.1 93.8 85.8 21.6 22.8 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 32.3 34.4 31.7 3.7 91.3 83.1 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 30.6 31.4 27.9 2.4 81.8 75.9 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.3 32.4 2.9 85.2 77.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 19.8 21.1 29.3 3.4 88.2 80.7 17.2 18.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 31.8 34.0 32.4 4.0 93.0 84.5 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 31.3 33.1 30.4 3.7 89.9 82.0 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 31.8 33.7 31.8 3.8 90.9 83.0 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 30.8 32.4 30.8 3.6 89.7 81.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 31.9 33.1 30.5 3.1 86.8 79.7 28.8 30.1 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 31.1 32.5 31.1 3.3 87.6 79.6 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 32.3 34.6 32.9 4.0 94.3 86.8 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 32.7 34.5 31.2 3.6 90.5 82.8 29.4 30.7 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 30.9 31.9 32.0 2.8 84.1 76.7 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 30.2 31.5 29.4 3.4 87.8 80.0 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.1 32.6 3.0 85.3 77.5 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 26.2 27.2 26.8 2.9 84.8 77.9 23.3 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 31.6 33.3 32.8 3.5 89.6 81.2 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 31.2 32.0 31.6 2.5 81.2 74.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 31.1 32.8 33.0 3.7 89.7 81.2 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 30.8 32.2 31.2 3.3 87.9 79.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 31.9 33.5 31.7 3.4 90.0 81.7 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 31.4 32.9 30.1 3.2 88.1 80.5 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 31.3 32.8 32.0 3.2 89.0 80.5 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 32.2 34.0 31.7 3.9 92.8 85.1 29.4 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 25.8 26.9 28.2 3.0 85.3 77.9 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 31.2 32.4 32.5 2.9 84.9 77.3 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------