***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 30.8 31.9 32.7 3.1 84.2 75.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 30.4 31.2 32.4 2.8 81.2 72.2 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 30.5 31.5 33.0 3.2 84.2 75.3 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 23.8 25.7 31.7 3.8 90.7 81.5 20.8 22.1 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 31.4 32.9 31.7 3.5 88.4 78.9 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 29.6 30.4 27.9 2.2 79.8 72.0 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 30.1 30.9 32.3 2.8 81.8 72.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 18.9 20.1 29.6 3.2 86.8 76.9 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 30.5 32.1 32.0 3.7 88.9 79.2 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 30.3 31.7 30.5 3.5 87.8 78.0 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 30.9 32.4 31.4 3.5 88.7 79.0 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 30.0 31.3 31.0 3.3 87.2 77.5 27.3 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 31.1 32.0 29.8 2.7 82.4 74.4 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 30.3 31.3 30.8 3.1 84.1 75.2 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 31.4 33.1 32.3 3.6 90.7 82.0 28.8 29.9 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 32.0 33.4 30.9 3.3 87.4 78.4 29.2 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 29.6 30.5 32.0 2.7 80.9 71.6 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.4 29.7 3.3 85.9 76.2 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 30.1 31.0 32.6 2.9 82.1 73.3 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 25.4 26.2 26.8 2.6 82.3 73.1 22.8 23.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 30.6 31.8 32.5 3.3 86.0 76.8 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 30.3 31.1 31.7 2.6 79.3 70.7 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 30.1 31.2 32.7 3.2 84.8 75.8 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 29.9 31.0 31.0 3.2 85.2 76.0 27.4 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 30.9 32.2 31.5 3.4 86.7 77.3 28.3 29.4 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 30.8 31.8 30.2 2.8 84.5 76.0 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 30.4 31.5 31.9 3.2 85.1 75.6 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 31.4 33.0 31.7 3.6 89.8 80.7 28.6 29.8 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 24.7 25.6 28.3 2.9 83.1 73.8 22.2 23.3 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 30.3 31.0 32.5 2.9 81.8 73.0 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------