***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 31.6 31.7 30.8 1.8 70.9 66.6 28.7 30.0 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 30.1 30.6 30.2 1.2 64.0 61.6 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 31.0 31.1 30.9 1.7 69.0 65.0 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 24.7 25.5 29.8 2.6 79.6 73.0 21.3 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 32.2 32.7 29.7 2.2 75.7 69.8 29.0 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 30.5 30.7 26.8 1.8 72.3 67.2 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 30.6 30.4 30.3 1.3 65.5 62.6 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 19.6 19.9 27.7 2.0 73.4 67.6 16.6 18.0 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 31.2 31.6 29.8 2.2 75.0 69.3 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.3 28.4 2.1 73.6 67.9 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 31.7 32.2 29.5 2.3 76.3 69.9 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.3 29.1 2.1 74.6 68.4 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 31.9 32.1 28.3 1.8 71.8 67.0 28.8 30.2 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.4 28.3 1.3 64.6 61.8 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 32.1 32.9 30.6 2.7 80.9 74.2 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 32.8 33.3 29.3 2.3 76.3 70.3 29.4 30.9 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.8 29.8 1.1 62.4 60.5 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 29.8 29.9 27.4 1.7 69.5 65.0 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 29.7 30.4 30.3 1.3 64.7 62.1 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 26.0 25.9 24.9 1.5 68.2 63.9 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 31.2 31.4 30.4 1.9 72.1 67.3 28.3 29.7 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.3 29.4 0.9 60.6 59.2 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 29.7 30.5 30.4 1.5 66.8 63.5 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 30.4 30.4 28.7 1.6 67.8 64.0 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 31.5 31.8 29.6 2.1 74.5 69.1 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 31.7 32.0 28.7 2.0 74.4 68.9 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 31.0 31.1 30.0 1.9 72.3 67.5 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 32.2 32.9 30.0 2.5 79.3 72.9 29.0 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.4 25.2 26.2 1.4 66.6 62.8 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 30.8 30.7 30.4 1.4 65.8 62.8 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------