***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.2 10.6 12.9 71.1 55.7 46.9 3.0 8.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.1 13.9 92.2 62.4 53.3 3.3 7.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.6 10.3 12.5 74.2 56.6 47.3 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.2 7.6 10.2 60.7 49.4 42.8 3.2 8.0 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.5 4.9 7.3 46.3 43.4 37.4 2.9 6.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.5 7.0 9.6 59.3 49.2 42.2 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.4 12.6 78.4 57.9 49.0 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.0 12.1 11.2 60.7 49.3 42.9 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.9 4.9 8.4 50.6 44.6 39.1 2.6 6.5 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 7.6 10.4 53.3 45.9 40.4 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.7 5.4 7.4 47.9 45.5 38.1 2.9 6.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.0 8.4 57.0 48.4 40.9 3.0 7.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.8 5.4 6.7 49.7 46.0 36.6 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.7 12.8 13.9 66.8 53.1 47.1 4.9 11.1 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.7 8.4 60.3 51.1 41.7 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.2 7.9 56.1 48.8 41.0 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.8 11.9 78.0 57.5 49.6 6.5 12.8 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 10.2 13.3 62.8 49.1 44.2 4.3 10.5 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 15.1 14.8 93.5 63.0 52.9 3.8 8.9 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 12.1 10.0 13.8 68.3 51.4 46.5 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.9 7.2 9.9 60.2 49.3 41.8 3.3 7.5 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.8 13.6 89.2 61.7 51.4 6.1 11.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.0 14.4 82.5 59.5 49.4 3.8 8.8 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.8 9.0 12.4 65.0 51.3 45.6 3.4 8.6 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.6 8.8 11.4 62.4 51.8 43.5 3.8 8.2 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.3 6.9 5.7 48.5 45.7 37.0 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.5 13.8 73.9 56.4 47.9 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.9 8.4 9.2 59.2 49.4 42.2 4.0 8.6 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.9 16.3 14.0 69.3 51.9 46.9 7.6 15.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.5 13.9 86.1 60.8 50.9 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------