***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 2.5 5.8 5.1 48.2 44.2 27.3 3.5 7.2 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 2.7 6.9 5.6 52.6 46.5 28.9 3.7 8.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 2.5 5.7 5.7 51.1 44.8 29.6 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.6 4.6 4.2 41.6 40.5 27.5 3.0 7.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.3 4.2 4.2 42.6 40.2 28.1 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 2.5 5.4 5.9 48.4 42.5 27.7 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.6 6.3 5.9 55.4 48.0 29.8 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 3.2 6.7 5.4 47.7 41.5 26.9 4.4 9.5 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 1.8 3.6 3.8 37.2 35.9 23.3 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 2.9 5.7 5.1 43.0 39.2 26.1 4.1 8.9 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 2.2 3.3 4.4 41.9 37.7 27.8 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 2.5 5.2 4.6 48.6 42.2 26.6 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 2.1 4.4 4.2 45.2 42.7 28.8 2.8 5.7 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 2.1 4.1 5.4 40.0 38.2 28.1 3.0 7.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.0 3.8 4.7 47.5 45.0 31.7 2.0 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.8 4.2 3.6 36.6 35.9 24.0 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.7 7.7 5.8 54.1 47.2 30.9 4.2 8.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 2.6 5.2 5.9 42.9 38.3 24.2 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 2.5 6.5 5.2 48.7 44.4 28.0 3.6 8.3 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 3.5 6.5 7.4 53.3 42.9 29.2 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 1.7 3.5 4.1 39.8 37.8 24.9 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.7 4.8 5.3 45.6 42.8 29.5 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 2.3 4.4 4.9 43.5 40.8 27.7 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 2.9 6.2 5.6 44.0 39.9 26.6 4.6 9.1 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 2.5 5.0 5.6 48.5 43.9 31.0 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 2.8 6.2 5.4 56.7 45.7 30.0 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 2.4 5.7 5.9 49.6 44.0 28.8 2.9 7.4 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.2 4.3 4.3 45.2 43.1 28.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 3.4 6.6 7.1 47.4 39.4 27.9 4.9 10.3 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.3 5.9 5.9 56.5 48.4 29.9 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------