***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 2.4 5.6 4.4 48.6 46.3 25.0 3.0 6.6 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.2 9.1 5.7 66.0 53.8 31.0 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 2.1 7.1 5.2 60.5 51.6 25.7 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 2.9 5.9 2.8 40.6 39.0 18.8 4.4 9.2 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 2.2 6.4 3.8 59.0 49.1 21.6 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 2.9 7.2 4.7 52.2 46.4 26.1 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.4 6.7 5.7 65.2 53.4 29.2 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 4.2 11.0 4.9 60.6 48.9 22.6 6.1 11.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 3.0 9.0 4.5 59.6 49.8 21.5 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 4.3 10.0 5.1 58.3 48.4 22.3 6.1 10.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 3.7 9.2 3.9 64.6 51.3 22.9 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 2.6 7.2 4.1 62.9 50.8 21.4 3.8 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 2.2 5.6 3.6 50.1 45.4 25.0 2.9 6.9 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 4.1 9.9 6.0 59.2 49.6 27.3 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 2.5 4.4 2.3 34.6 38.0 20.2 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 2.5 5.5 3.1 49.4 43.9 21.8 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 2.9 6.9 5.0 55.9 49.1 30.6 3.5 7.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 3.9 9.2 5.8 56.9 48.2 23.9 5.7 9.7 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 2.4 7.7 5.5 64.6 53.2 30.1 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 3.0 7.3 6.1 58.7 47.8 26.7 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 2.7 8.6 4.2 56.2 48.9 22.2 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 3.7 7.4 4.8 51.3 46.7 30.0 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.8 6.4 5.2 62.0 51.9 26.4 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 4.3 11.5 5.6 59.3 49.8 25.0 6.3 11.6 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 2.8 6.6 3.8 43.6 44.0 22.9 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.4 6.3 3.6 60.3 51.0 29.7 2.8 6.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 2.3 4.9 4.2 43.1 44.0 24.4 3.1 6.1 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 2.1 4.3 2.5 39.4 38.9 19.6 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 4.8 10.9 6.0 55.7 46.5 25.6 6.7 12.2 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 2.3 6.9 5.7 65.3 53.5 28.3 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------