***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 10.1 10.1 99.0 65.6 44.5 2.2 5.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.1 10.6 11.7 121.6 71.5 49.2 1.9 4.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.2 10.3 10.4 103.3 67.1 46.2 1.9 4.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 1.8 9.2 10.5 106.8 67.9 39.8 1.8 4.3 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.4 5.2 9.4 100.2 66.3 40.5 1.4 3.0 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.8 7.2 10.4 97.7 64.2 39.8 1.8 4.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.9 10.9 113.6 69.4 47.0 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.6 12.0 10.8 98.8 65.4 42.5 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 1.6 5.3 8.9 87.6 63.0 43.0 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.8 10.9 91.9 63.5 43.7 2.4 5.2 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.3 5.8 9.8 109.6 68.8 41.2 1.5 3.0 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.7 6.7 9.7 112.3 69.3 40.5 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 1.2 6.0 9.1 105.1 67.1 37.3 1.4 3.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.5 13.8 15.0 119.4 71.0 47.9 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.3 7.0 8.2 101.3 66.3 38.9 1.2 3.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.1 6.6 9.6 113.4 69.5 38.5 1.3 3.0 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.8 7.2 11.8 127.3 72.7 47.5 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.0 6.4 12.4 94.3 64.1 45.6 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.3 10.9 12.3 126.7 72.8 50.3 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.7 12.4 97.8 64.2 45.0 2.8 5.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.9 8.6 9.3 90.8 64.0 42.5 1.9 4.8 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.8 8.0 12.9 131.0 73.6 49.7 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.9 11.4 12.8 132.9 74.1 50.1 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.7 9.8 12.1 102.4 66.7 46.7 2.4 5.2 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.6 6.6 11.0 99.7 66.3 43.7 1.4 3.3 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.0 4.9 7.6 109.5 68.4 38.3 1.2 2.5 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 13.1 10.9 99.7 66.1 45.3 3.1 7.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.1 5.2 9.6 107.8 68.1 38.9 1.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.8 12.8 97.6 64.7 45.8 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.2 10.5 11.1 113.6 69.6 48.5 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------