***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 15.8 16.1 19.8 0.5 59.2 58.8 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 16.5 16.4 19.8 0.8 66.0 65.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 17.9 18.3 20.1 0.7 62.9 62.1 17.0 17.8 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.3 17.9 0.9 68.2 66.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.8 18.3 0.6 63.2 62.5 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 13.7 14.1 15.7 0.6 64.0 63.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 16.2 16.6 19.9 0.7 63.7 62.9 15.3 16.1 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 9.7 9.7 15.8 0.8 68.6 67.4 8.3 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.4 18.8 0.9 70.3 69.1 14.9 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.3 17.0 0.9 71.5 70.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 48 52 100 15.9 15.9 18.3 0.8 66.1 65.2 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 13.6 14.0 16.9 0.7 64.1 63.3 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 15.3 15.3 17.0 0.6 65.2 64.4 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.1 18.6 1.0 72.3 70.8 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 18.2 18.4 20.4 1.2 77.0 75.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 16.0 16.5 17.7 0.7 65.8 65.0 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 17.4 17.5 19.9 1.2 73.6 72.1 15.9 16.5 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.9 16.3 0.9 69.4 68.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.5 20.0 0.9 67.9 66.8 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.0 14.2 0.8 69.3 68.0 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 16.0 16.0 19.8 0.7 65.0 64.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.3 20.1 1.0 71.2 69.7 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.3 20.3 1.3 75.2 73.2 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.8 18.6 0.9 69.9 68.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 15.5 15.8 19.0 0.5 59.1 58.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 14.8 14.9 15.6 0.2 53.9 53.8 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 15.4 15.8 19.3 0.5 59.9 59.5 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.5 18.7 1.0 71.0 69.9 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.0 15.5 0.9 70.4 69.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 16.1 16.5 19.9 0.6 61.8 61.1 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------