***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.7 20.0 0.5 59.1 56.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.1 16.9 19.8 0.7 63.7 60.3 15.1 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.7 19.0 20.3 0.6 62.7 59.8 17.4 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 14.7 14.7 17.9 0.8 66.5 63.6 12.8 13.7 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.6 18.2 0.6 62.2 59.9 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.3 15.8 0.6 64.4 61.7 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.9 20.0 0.6 61.9 59.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.4 15.9 0.8 67.0 63.4 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.6 18.3 0.7 64.6 61.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.8 16.7 16.8 0.7 66.5 63.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.2 18.0 0.6 64.0 61.4 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.4 16.9 0.6 63.9 60.9 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.0 16.1 0.2 55.4 54.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.3 18.2 0.8 68.0 64.0 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 17.9 17.9 19.7 0.9 68.4 65.5 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.0 17.2 0.5 61.9 59.8 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.7 17.7 19.8 1.0 69.9 65.3 15.9 16.7 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.9 16.0 0.6 64.5 61.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 17.0 16.9 20.0 0.8 65.9 62.1 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.0 13.9 0.6 65.0 62.0 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.3 19.6 0.5 60.7 58.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.5 19.8 0.8 65.9 62.3 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.8 20.3 1.1 72.6 67.2 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.9 18.1 0.7 65.7 62.5 15.4 16.2 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.5 19.0 0.5 59.7 57.5 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.9 15.3 0.0 51.0 50.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.8 19.4 0.5 60.1 57.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.7 18.6 0.9 68.6 65.3 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.2 15.3 0.7 65.6 62.3 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.0 20.0 0.5 60.2 57.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------