***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.3 18.6 -0.3 44.2 45.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.3 18.4 -0.1 48.1 48.7 14.5 15.4 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.0 19.0 -0.1 49.0 49.4 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.0 16.7 0.1 52.2 51.7 12.8 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.8 16.6 0.0 50.1 50.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 14.8 0.2 54.2 53.1 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.6 18.6 -0.2 46.5 47.3 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.1 14.5 0.1 51.4 51.1 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.0 16.5 -0.1 48.9 49.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.0 15.2 0.0 50.2 50.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.5 16.2 0.1 52.3 51.8 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.9 12.6 15.3 0.0 49.7 49.8 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.6 14.2 -0.2 45.9 46.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.7 16.6 0.0 49.7 50.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.4 18.1 0.3 54.7 53.3 15.3 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.7 15.5 0.1 51.5 51.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.1 18.4 0.0 50.5 50.6 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.3 14.4 -0.1 48.9 49.4 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 50.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.3 12.1 0.0 49.4 49.7 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.7 17.9 -0.2 46.7 47.8 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.9 18.3 0.0 50.0 50.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.2 18.7 0.2 54.0 53.5 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 16.4 0.0 50.5 50.6 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.0 17.1 -0.3 45.0 46.5 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.1 14.1 -0.2 45.8 46.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.4 17.8 -0.3 44.7 45.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.0 17.2 0.3 55.8 54.2 13.0 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.2 13.8 -0.1 48.9 49.5 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.7 18.6 -0.2 46.5 47.3 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------