***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 19.4 0.2 54.4 53.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.1 19.3 0.4 61.2 59.8 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.3 19.8 0.4 60.3 59.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.2 17.5 0.6 66.4 64.6 13.0 13.6 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.6 17.6 0.4 61.2 59.8 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.8 15.4 0.5 64.6 62.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.2 19.4 0.3 57.9 56.9 15.5 16.0 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.6 15.4 0.5 66.3 64.1 8.7 9.1 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.9 17.7 0.5 64.3 62.3 15.1 15.5 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 15.9 15.9 16.2 0.5 66.8 64.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.5 17.3 0.5 64.3 62.6 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.6 16.2 0.4 62.1 60.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.6 15.5 0.2 56.0 55.1 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.5 17.6 0.5 66.3 64.0 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.4 19.3 0.8 71.7 69.3 16.1 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.3 16.7 0.4 63.2 61.5 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 16.8 16.8 19.3 0.6 67.6 65.4 16.0 16.4 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.2 15.5 0.5 65.6 63.4 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.2 19.4 0.5 64.2 62.4 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.3 10.2 13.3 0.4 65.4 63.4 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.6 19.0 0.3 58.9 57.7 14.9 15.4 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.6 19.2 0.5 63.8 62.0 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.7 19.6 0.8 71.5 68.6 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 15.9 16.2 17.6 0.5 66.5 64.3 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.7 18.2 0.2 55.7 54.9 15.1 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 15.0 0.0 51.4 51.3 14.2 14.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.9 18.7 0.2 55.8 55.0 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.0 18.1 0.7 70.4 68.1 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.6 14.8 0.4 65.1 63.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.2 19.4 0.3 57.0 56.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------