***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.5 29.7 29.5 -0.3 46.5 47.6 28.6 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 28.1 29.7 29.9 0.1 51.7 51.7 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 28.0 29.8 30.3 0.2 52.9 52.3 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 20.9 23.3 28.6 0.5 56.1 55.0 21.2 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 28.8 30.8 28.7 0.4 54.5 53.6 29.0 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.9 26.1 0.1 51.6 51.6 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.8 29.2 29.7 -0.1 49.2 49.8 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.5 18.3 26.9 0.4 54.6 53.7 16.6 18.0 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 28.1 30.0 28.8 0.4 55.3 54.0 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.8 29.8 27.5 0.5 56.1 54.7 28.0 29.4 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 28.2 30.4 28.5 0.5 56.6 55.2 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.5 29.4 28.1 0.3 53.1 52.7 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 30.8 30.1 27.1 -0.2 48.0 49.0 28.8 30.2 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.6 29.8 28.2 0.6 57.3 55.9 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.8 30.8 29.7 0.6 56.9 55.5 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 29.3 31.3 28.2 0.4 54.7 54.0 29.5 30.9 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 27.3 29.1 29.7 0.3 53.3 52.7 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.8 26.8 0.5 55.7 54.4 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 27.6 29.6 30.2 0.4 54.6 53.8 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.7 24.4 0.3 53.7 53.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 30.2 29.7 29.4 0.1 51.0 50.9 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.9 29.7 29.5 0.2 52.9 52.6 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.8 29.8 30.4 0.8 59.2 57.0 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 27.3 29.4 28.3 0.6 56.8 55.2 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.3 29.6 28.0 -0.3 46.8 47.9 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.7 27.7 -0.1 48.5 49.4 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.2 28.6 -0.3 46.5 47.6 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.9 31.0 29.2 0.7 58.5 56.8 29.0 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 22.2 24.2 25.7 0.3 54.2 53.4 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.9 29.4 29.8 0.0 49.6 50.1 28.2 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------