***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 29.7 29.1 29.5 -0.4 43.8 44.4 28.5 29.4 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.4 29.2 30.0 0.0 50.7 50.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.1 30.0 -0.1 49.0 49.1 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 22.8 22.8 28.2 0.4 56.7 55.7 21.5 22.5 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.2 29.8 28.4 0.0 49.4 49.2 28.9 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.4 25.9 -0.1 48.4 48.6 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.2 28.9 29.9 0.0 49.5 49.6 28.1 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.6 26.2 -0.2 46.1 46.5 17.0 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.6 29.3 28.8 0.1 51.1 50.6 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.0 27.0 0.0 49.7 49.4 28.1 29.0 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.4 28.3 0.0 50.1 49.8 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.5 27.5 -0.2 45.7 46.3 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.4 27.2 -0.4 43.2 44.2 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.1 28.2 0.2 53.7 53.0 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 30.4 30.7 30.1 0.6 60.9 59.5 29.3 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.8 30.5 28.0 0.1 51.1 50.8 29.5 30.5 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.8 29.8 0.3 55.4 54.8 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.0 26.2 -0.1 48.8 48.6 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 29.0 29.0 30.2 0.2 54.0 53.5 27.9 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.4 23.8 23.9 -0.3 45.0 45.6 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.1 29.4 -0.2 46.2 46.4 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.2 29.6 0.2 52.8 52.7 28.1 29.0 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.4 30.4 0.7 61.3 59.6 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.7 28.2 0.1 52.5 51.9 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.3 28.2 -0.3 44.8 45.2 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.8 28.9 27.0 -0.5 40.8 42.2 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.4 28.9 28.8 -0.3 45.3 45.7 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.4 30.7 29.1 0.6 61.2 59.7 29.3 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.3 25.2 -0.2 45.8 46.1 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.9 29.8 -0.2 46.9 47.3 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------