***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.9 14.3 75.1 58.6 51.4 3.2 8.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.4 12.1 77.4 59.3 50.0 3.2 7.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.7 14.6 16.8 95.6 65.0 55.7 2.8 7.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 11.2 14.3 18.0 86.7 62.8 57.2 3.8 8.7 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.5 14.4 22.1 109.6 69.3 63.2 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 17.5 21.8 27.2 152.6 77.8 72.4 3.3 7.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.4 12.0 75.9 58.4 49.0 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 26.7 32.7 29.5 146.2 76.5 71.4 5.7 12.3 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.8 17.1 21.5 106.9 68.5 62.0 3.3 7.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 21.3 24.4 28.6 129.1 73.3 67.4 4.3 9.7 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.6 16.9 22.9 134.0 74.5 67.0 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 17.5 19.4 21.4 127.9 72.4 66.3 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.3 12.4 18.7 108.0 68.8 62.4 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.9 24.6 26.1 115.4 70.8 62.0 4.8 10.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 7.6 7.7 11.4 63.4 56.6 50.2 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 11.5 12.0 19.9 117.8 70.7 63.7 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.4 11.6 78.3 57.7 47.4 4.6 10.6 19.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 28.2 33.2 31.5 139.4 75.4 70.1 4.9 11.7 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.6 15.2 14.6 88.9 63.1 53.5 3.6 8.7 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 19.5 23.2 33.6 160.0 78.3 74.7 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.6 15.3 18.4 95.2 64.8 57.6 3.8 8.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.9 15.7 12.5 87.2 62.3 49.3 4.2 9.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 11.8 19.0 18.8 108.7 68.9 59.5 3.7 8.8 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 19.2 20.7 24.3 118.1 71.1 64.1 4.1 9.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 10.7 10.8 15.2 68.7 56.9 50.9 3.2 8.0 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 16.4 20.6 19.6 153.5 77.8 72.2 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.7 14.6 70.8 57.3 51.1 3.4 7.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 10.1 13.7 18.1 91.3 64.4 58.0 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 33.4 38.5 31.3 142.5 76.0 71.5 8.3 16.4 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.0 13.9 14.0 84.4 61.9 52.7 3.7 8.5 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------