***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.5 10.8 7.4 82.3 61.5 42.7 3.4 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.4 6.9 75.2 58.3 42.6 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.5 7.8 86.0 61.0 46.6 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.4 6.8 78.5 58.8 45.5 3.7 8.1 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.2 7.1 81.5 60.4 43.1 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.6 7.6 76.4 57.1 41.9 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.7 6.4 69.0 55.2 40.2 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.9 19.8 8.8 90.8 62.6 46.4 6.4 12.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.2 8.9 101.6 67.0 49.9 2.9 6.4 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 16.0 9.5 90.2 62.7 46.2 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.7 6.8 68.4 53.1 40.3 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.5 7.2 93.7 63.2 46.4 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.4 11.5 7.9 104.9 67.1 53.1 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.4 8.8 84.5 60.9 46.1 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.1 5.6 69.6 55.2 41.6 2.3 5.8 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.0 7.3 88.6 61.6 48.3 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.9 6.8 71.6 55.6 40.3 4.0 8.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.8 15.6 11.6 109.6 68.3 49.3 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.9 7.3 80.0 59.6 44.2 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 16.1 11.8 117.1 69.9 52.7 4.9 8.9 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.9 8.4 96.2 65.5 46.2 2.5 5.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.3 7.3 79.9 58.2 44.2 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.6 7.7 82.8 59.9 44.3 3.9 7.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 17.5 10.3 105.9 67.4 51.0 4.6 9.5 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.3 9.2 99.8 65.9 49.0 3.2 7.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.0 14.5 8.3 115.0 67.9 51.9 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.1 8.9 91.2 63.1 46.1 2.9 6.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.9 6.1 76.4 57.9 43.2 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.9 20.0 13.0 111.5 68.2 51.7 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.1 6.4 69.7 56.0 39.9 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------