***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.8 13.9 9.7 147.5 77.1 52.0 2.5 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.6 22.2 11.0 175.4 81.7 50.1 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.1 17.5 9.7 154.8 78.4 50.9 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.8 20.9 8.7 148.5 77.3 50.0 3.7 7.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.7 12.4 7.6 140.4 75.6 44.3 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.8 13.3 8.2 106.0 68.3 46.6 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.0 14.0 10.7 170.4 80.9 51.6 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.0 19.1 9.6 151.5 77.7 51.7 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.3 17.6 8.9 149.4 77.4 48.3 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.0 17.5 10.3 147.2 76.9 50.6 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.5 13.6 6.2 126.4 72.3 44.1 3.6 6.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.2 7.1 143.3 75.8 49.7 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.0 13.5 6.7 118.3 70.8 48.7 2.7 5.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.1 19.6 13.4 142.7 76.1 51.8 5.0 9.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 16.2 7.0 147.8 77.1 47.6 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.9 12.2 6.4 119.9 71.3 47.4 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.1 18.7 10.8 173.2 81.3 54.4 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 16.4 12.2 145.8 76.7 53.6 4.6 7.9 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.9 19.4 11.1 173.4 81.3 48.7 2.9 6.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 14.3 16.3 12.3 140.1 75.4 58.0 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.3 19.0 8.8 148.6 77.2 48.2 3.0 6.8 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.8 20.4 11.8 175.6 81.6 53.6 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.5 14.7 11.0 166.4 80.2 48.8 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 21.8 11.1 145.1 76.5 53.2 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.1 15.9 9.6 142.0 76.1 50.2 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.3 12.6 6.6 144.9 76.4 47.1 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 12.7 10.3 141.0 76.0 52.4 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 19.5 8.0 143.3 76.3 48.5 3.0 6.9 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 21.7 12.7 137.9 75.0 56.2 5.0 9.5 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.4 14.4 10.2 169.7 80.8 48.0 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------