***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.6 7.6 4.2 69.0 54.6 35.6 2.8 6.2 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.4 6.3 3.9 61.7 52.2 33.2 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.2 7.6 4.0 61.6 50.6 34.0 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.0 4.6 3.0 59.1 48.8 31.8 2.0 4.8 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.3 2.6 2.8 52.2 45.2 28.8 1.5 3.0 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 1.8 6.4 4.7 78.1 58.9 34.4 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.6 8.7 4.5 74.4 57.5 34.1 2.9 6.4 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 3.1 8.5 4.7 67.9 54.5 34.8 3.2 7.1 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.3 3.1 49.4 44.1 29.9 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.5 5.3 4.3 56.5 48.9 33.1 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 1.3 3.0 2.9 54.5 47.7 28.7 1.6 3.3 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 1.7 5.0 4.1 74.6 56.8 34.0 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.2 4.6 4.4 81.6 59.5 33.9 1.3 3.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.9 6.7 4.7 48.5 46.5 34.0 3.9 7.5 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.8 4.0 2.2 57.3 47.8 30.0 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.1 3.1 3.3 65.2 51.9 31.0 1.2 2.9 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 2.0 5.0 4.0 57.1 51.7 31.5 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.3 5.1 5.6 58.5 50.0 34.6 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.5 6.1 3.8 58.4 50.2 33.2 2.8 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.8 7.0 69.5 54.9 37.8 2.4 5.4 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.9 3.1 49.3 44.3 29.1 2.2 5.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.2 5.6 4.8 59.2 52.8 35.2 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.2 6.5 3.9 57.0 49.3 33.6 3.6 6.6 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.8 4.7 55.0 48.8 33.4 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 1.7 3.6 3.4 55.3 47.3 31.6 1.7 4.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 1.1 4.6 3.9 90.3 61.9 34.6 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.6 9.9 4.5 67.3 53.9 34.6 4.0 8.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.7 3.7 2.7 61.4 50.8 31.4 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.1 6.4 59.8 51.0 36.0 2.6 5.8 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.4 6.9 4.2 68.0 55.0 35.9 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------