***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 43.7 41.4 35.8 87.6 56.7 50.8 18.5 33.8 54.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 48.6 47.8 33.9 90.6 57.4 49.8 25.5 40.2 58.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 48.3 53.0 38.4 97.2 60.9 54.8 26.6 41.5 59.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 46.8 50.7 36.5 90.6 58.6 53.2 24.3 40.6 61.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 32.5 38.6 39.5 99.5 62.4 57.6 17.6 28.5 42.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 43.4 56.4 47.7 114.5 67.1 61.9 24.5 38.2 54.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 44.4 43.9 33.6 90.0 57.1 49.4 23.6 37.2 53.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 82.4 86.0 52.6 121.8 69.9 64.8 41.4 59.0 79.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 43.7 52.1 42.4 103.0 63.5 58.5 24.8 38.5 54.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 52.0 66.6 52.7 111.6 66.4 61.3 28.9 45.6 66.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 37.3 44.6 38.8 103.0 63.3 58.5 19.7 32.0 47.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 38.5 50.3 39.8 113.3 67.0 61.9 20.1 33.0 49.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 32.3 42.3 37.7 105.0 64.5 59.9 16.5 28.3 43.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 58.4 66.3 53.1 101.6 62.2 55.9 32.4 50.1 72.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 36.9 33.1 26.1 75.6 53.0 47.6 17.3 30.6 47.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 31.8 38.8 36.9 103.3 63.5 58.8 17.9 28.2 41.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 53.1 50.3 33.2 88.4 55.6 48.5 32.4 45.4 60.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 69.7 70.7 60.9 118.9 68.9 63.8 32.2 47.9 66.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 50.3 52.9 36.7 96.0 59.9 52.2 24.6 41.0 61.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 61.2 64.5 64.8 127.4 71.9 67.3 30.7 43.2 57.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 47.9 53.5 38.7 96.3 61.1 55.5 28.5 42.4 59.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.4 49.8 36.3 95.2 59.3 51.6 30.0 42.2 56.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 43.6 51.1 41.3 103.5 63.1 55.5 22.7 36.9 54.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 56.7 67.4 50.4 108.0 65.0 60.0 35.6 50.8 68.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 46.4 43.8 37.4 84.8 55.1 49.7 25.5 39.3 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 48.8 53.6 38.4 131.3 73.1 68.1 20.1 31.3 45.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 50.0 47.5 38.2 86.3 55.5 50.0 26.0 41.5 61.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 36.5 41.6 34.9 92.8 60.0 54.4 19.2 32.1 48.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 85.0 85.1 63.3 117.9 68.3 63.5 45.5 62.4 81.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 40.2 40.9 34.9 91.8 58.2 50.8 19.4 32.9 50.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------