***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 16.9 17.8 21.0 2.0 88.7 86.1 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 16.8 17.2 20.4 1.4 80.8 78.6 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 18.7 19.1 20.6 1.2 77.6 75.5 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 14.6 15.0 17.9 1.3 79.2 76.4 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.6 18.7 1.3 78.8 76.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 14.6 15.0 15.8 1.2 81.6 78.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 17.3 18.1 21.0 2.0 88.8 86.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 9.7 10.0 15.8 1.1 77.4 74.9 8.2 8.8 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.3 18.5 0.8 69.8 67.6 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.3 16.6 0.9 72.4 69.9 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 15.9 15.8 17.9 0.6 64.7 63.3 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 14.4 14.6 17.2 1.2 76.9 74.6 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.9 16.6 0.3 58.2 57.5 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.2 18.3 1.0 76.6 74.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 18.0 18.5 20.1 1.1 78.1 75.3 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.6 17.6 0.8 70.7 68.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 17.6 18.1 20.4 1.7 85.3 83.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 15.1 15.6 16.3 1.3 80.9 77.7 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.7 20.1 1.0 72.9 71.2 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 11.2 11.9 14.6 1.6 84.5 81.7 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.6 19.9 1.2 78.8 76.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 16.4 16.7 20.4 1.4 80.1 78.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 15.9 15.9 19.8 0.7 65.7 64.5 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.1 18.3 1.0 76.7 74.0 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 16.6 17.6 20.2 2.0 88.8 86.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 15.5 15.7 16.0 1.0 75.5 72.9 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 16.9 18.6 20.9 2.4 92.7 90.6 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 15.5 15.8 18.5 1.1 77.3 74.7 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 13.9 14.2 15.3 1.1 77.0 74.3 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 17.0 17.4 20.7 1.5 81.0 78.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------