***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.3 18.5 -0.6 38.3 41.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.5 14.8 18.1 -0.7 35.2 38.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 17.0 17.3 18.6 -0.8 33.6 37.1 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.7 16.7 0.0 49.5 50.0 12.8 13.7 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 13.4 13.9 16.3 -0.4 40.5 43.3 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.4 14.9 0.1 53.2 51.8 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.4 18.5 -0.5 40.6 42.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.9 14.4 -0.3 43.1 44.6 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.7 15.0 16.1 -0.6 37.1 40.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.1 14.9 -0.4 41.7 43.6 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 14.3 14.6 16.0 -0.5 39.7 42.7 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.4 12.9 15.3 -0.4 41.7 43.9 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 13.4 14.1 14.5 -0.2 45.8 46.9 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.2 15.5 16.0 -0.6 36.7 39.6 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.7 18.4 0.2 55.2 53.9 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.6 15.4 -0.2 45.4 46.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.0 18.1 -0.4 41.1 42.7 15.7 16.3 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.5 14.1 -0.1 46.5 46.7 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 14.8 15.0 18.0 -0.9 31.1 34.6 15.0 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 12.1 0.1 53.4 51.4 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.5 14.8 17.6 -0.6 36.9 40.3 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.7 17.9 -0.6 36.8 39.2 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.3 17.9 -1.0 29.2 33.0 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.4 16.0 -0.5 39.3 41.5 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 14.4 15.1 17.3 -0.3 43.5 45.6 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.7 14.4 14.4 -0.2 46.2 47.2 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 14.5 15.3 17.9 -0.3 42.8 44.9 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.4 17.1 0.1 52.4 51.8 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.1 13.6 -0.1 48.3 48.0 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.2 18.4 -0.7 34.8 37.9 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------