***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.7 18.7 0.2 53.8 51.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.3 18.2 0.0 50.0 49.1 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.8 17.8 18.6 -0.1 47.9 48.1 17.0 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.4 16.6 0.5 61.2 57.4 12.6 13.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.8 16.2 0.1 52.0 51.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.3 14.6 0.4 58.9 56.9 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.9 18.6 0.3 55.2 52.7 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.0 14.4 0.2 55.0 53.5 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.8 16.0 -0.1 47.2 47.6 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.0 14.8 0.1 52.3 51.5 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.5 15.9 0.1 51.6 50.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.7 15.2 0.2 53.5 52.5 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.7 14.1 0.1 52.4 52.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.4 15.9 -0.1 47.5 48.3 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.8 18.2 0.6 62.9 59.1 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.7 15.2 0.2 54.8 53.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.2 18.2 0.3 55.8 52.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.4 13.9 0.3 56.1 54.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.2 18.1 -0.2 45.4 46.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.6 12.0 0.4 61.0 58.2 8.6 9.2 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 13.8 14.7 17.5 0.0 49.2 48.9 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.9 18.0 0.2 53.4 51.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.4 17.8 -0.4 41.2 43.5 14.1 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.1 15.8 0.0 50.6 50.5 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 17.4 0.4 57.7 54.4 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.3 14.1 0.1 52.6 53.1 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.2 18.0 0.4 57.5 53.8 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.2 16.9 0.5 61.2 57.9 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.5 13.5 0.3 57.2 54.9 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.8 18.5 0.0 50.1 49.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------