***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.0 19.2 0.2 56.0 54.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.4 18.7 -0.1 45.3 46.6 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.8 19.1 -0.2 43.6 45.1 17.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.1 16.9 0.4 62.5 59.5 13.0 13.6 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.3 17.0 0.1 52.1 51.8 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.8 13.8 15.0 0.5 67.5 63.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.1 19.1 0.2 56.6 55.5 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.2 14.7 0.1 54.2 53.2 8.6 9.1 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.3 16.8 -0.2 42.4 43.9 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.4 15.3 0.0 49.1 49.1 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.9 16.5 -0.2 44.7 46.0 14.6 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.3 15.8 0.1 53.9 53.2 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.3 15.1 0.0 49.8 50.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.9 16.6 -0.1 44.9 46.0 15.6 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.2 18.9 0.5 65.4 62.3 16.1 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.0 16.1 0.1 54.6 53.8 15.4 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.8 16.4 18.6 0.1 53.7 53.3 15.9 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.0 14.7 0.2 59.0 56.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.2 15.4 18.5 -0.4 37.1 39.7 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.2 10.3 12.8 0.5 69.1 64.4 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.2 18.2 -0.1 47.7 48.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.2 18.5 -0.1 47.3 48.0 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.7 14.8 18.3 -0.6 31.9 34.9 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.7 16.6 0.0 48.4 48.6 15.3 15.8 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.8 18.2 0.4 61.6 59.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.7 14.8 0.2 58.7 56.7 14.2 14.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.2 18.8 0.4 64.1 61.2 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.7 17.5 0.4 63.9 60.9 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.4 14.1 0.2 57.9 55.9 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.9 19.0 -0.1 45.9 47.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------