***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 30.7 31.2 31.4 2.2 78.9 76.4 27.7 28.9 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.7 31.2 1.7 72.2 70.2 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.4 31.1 1.6 70.1 68.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 24.4 25.8 29.3 3.1 87.2 84.4 20.8 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 31.3 32.0 30.1 2.5 79.6 77.7 27.7 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 30.2 31.5 28.3 3.3 87.7 85.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.4 31.7 2.4 81.7 78.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 19.2 19.8 28.1 2.7 81.1 79.0 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 30.5 30.9 30.4 2.0 75.0 73.2 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 30.6 31.3 28.7 2.6 80.5 78.4 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.4 30.6 2.5 78.0 76.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 30.1 30.8 29.7 2.7 80.2 78.4 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 31.0 31.6 30.5 2.6 78.9 77.2 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 30.3 30.7 29.9 2.3 77.6 75.4 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 31.9 33.1 32.8 3.1 86.5 84.1 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 32.0 32.8 30.5 2.8 81.1 79.2 28.3 29.8 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 30.2 30.9 31.4 2.3 80.1 76.9 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 29.7 30.8 28.3 3.2 85.3 82.7 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 29.6 29.6 30.7 1.2 65.8 64.6 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 25.7 26.9 26.4 3.3 86.5 84.0 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 30.7 31.2 31.4 2.3 77.9 75.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.5 30.8 30.9 2.0 75.5 73.0 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 28.7 29.3 30.5 1.0 62.5 61.7 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 30.1 30.7 30.2 2.5 79.3 77.0 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 31.2 31.9 30.6 2.5 80.8 78.3 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 30.7 31.2 29.3 2.7 79.4 77.8 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 30.6 31.3 31.1 2.5 81.8 79.1 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 31.9 33.3 30.9 3.3 87.8 85.3 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 25.2 26.3 27.4 3.2 85.4 82.7 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.5 31.2 1.7 72.1 70.3 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------