***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 28.0 28.7 29.0 -1.1 35.8 38.0 28.5 29.7 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.6 -1.7 28.6 32.0 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.7 -1.8 29.1 32.1 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.1 22.7 27.6 0.1 51.1 50.4 21.4 22.6 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.4 29.2 27.8 -0.8 40.2 41.7 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.2 26.5 0.5 57.7 55.7 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.0 29.0 -1.1 35.3 37.8 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.8 26.4 -0.3 45.7 45.9 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.9 28.5 27.9 -1.2 35.2 37.5 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 27.8 28.7 26.7 -0.6 42.3 43.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.8 28.2 -0.8 39.8 41.4 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.4 28.0 -0.4 45.1 45.8 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.3 29.6 28.1 -0.3 45.8 46.7 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 27.3 27.7 27.0 -1.5 31.3 34.1 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.8 30.6 30.3 0.3 53.4 52.4 29.3 30.4 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.0 30.2 28.2 -0.3 45.6 46.4 29.3 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.3 28.7 -1.3 32.9 35.8 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.9 26.0 -0.4 44.7 44.8 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 26.9 26.8 28.3 -2.1 24.6 28.2 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.4 24.4 0.1 51.5 50.2 23.1 24.3 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 27.9 28.5 28.7 -1.2 35.5 37.8 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 27.1 27.4 28.3 -1.6 29.8 33.0 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 27.0 27.0 28.1 -2.4 22.9 26.4 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 27.2 27.8 27.4 -1.2 35.4 37.5 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.3 29.0 28.0 -0.8 39.8 41.3 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.4 27.9 -0.2 47.6 48.3 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.4 28.5 -0.9 38.5 40.2 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.7 30.5 28.9 0.3 54.2 52.9 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.4 25.1 -0.4 44.7 44.8 22.6 23.7 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.6 28.7 -1.7 29.4 32.6 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------