***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.3 30.0 -0.1 48.5 50.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.7 29.5 -0.5 42.3 45.2 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 28.0 28.6 29.7 -0.7 39.9 43.7 28.2 29.2 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.8 23.1 28.8 0.7 60.4 58.6 21.1 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.6 29.9 28.4 -0.1 48.4 49.9 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 29.9 29.4 26.7 0.8 62.6 59.3 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.9 29.9 0.0 49.9 51.0 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.4 17.9 27.2 0.2 52.9 52.7 16.6 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.9 28.2 -0.5 43.3 46.1 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.7 29.1 27.4 0.0 50.1 50.8 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 28.1 29.3 28.4 -0.2 47.0 48.9 28.4 29.5 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 27.4 28.8 28.7 0.0 50.2 51.1 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 30.5 30.1 27.9 0.2 53.2 53.2 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 27.6 28.4 27.4 -0.6 41.7 44.2 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.9 30.2 0.9 62.4 60.6 29.0 30.1 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 29.1 30.7 28.3 0.2 52.7 53.0 29.3 30.6 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.5 29.7 0.0 50.7 51.4 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 26.8 28.3 26.8 0.3 54.4 53.6 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.0 29.3 -1.0 36.6 40.6 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 24.7 25.0 25.0 0.9 62.4 58.7 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.1 29.0 29.2 -0.4 45.0 47.4 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.8 29.4 -0.3 46.1 47.8 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.7 27.9 29.0 -1.3 32.9 37.4 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.4 27.8 -0.3 45.6 47.5 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.9 28.7 0.3 55.2 55.2 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.9 28.7 0.3 53.7 53.2 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.4 29.3 0.2 53.1 53.8 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.5 30.8 29.3 0.8 61.4 59.4 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.9 25.8 0.4 55.2 53.9 22.4 23.5 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.7 29.6 -0.6 41.8 45.0 28.1 29.1 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------