***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 30.5 31.0 30.3 0.9 63.1 59.2 28.4 29.8 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.9 30.0 29.9 0.6 58.0 55.4 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 30.0 29.9 30.1 0.4 56.2 54.8 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 24.4 24.5 28.9 1.4 70.1 64.8 21.1 22.6 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.8 31.1 28.6 0.7 60.4 58.3 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.0 26.5 1.2 67.0 63.7 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 29.7 30.2 30.2 1.0 63.9 59.4 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 19.4 18.9 27.4 0.9 62.4 59.8 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.9 28.4 0.5 56.4 55.5 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.8 30.2 27.6 0.9 61.5 59.0 27.9 29.2 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.4 28.5 0.6 57.7 56.8 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 30.6 29.8 28.8 0.7 59.8 58.3 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 31.8 31.0 27.9 0.8 61.4 59.8 28.6 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.6 27.7 0.4 56.1 54.6 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.5 31.5 30.1 1.3 69.1 64.6 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 32.5 31.8 28.4 0.8 61.7 59.9 29.3 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.8 30.0 1.0 65.1 59.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.5 27.1 1.2 66.2 61.6 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.2 29.7 0.2 52.8 52.1 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 25.9 25.9 25.1 1.5 69.4 64.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 30.1 30.2 29.4 0.7 59.3 57.1 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.8 30.1 29.7 0.8 61.6 57.4 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.9 29.4 -0.1 48.3 49.4 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.1 29.6 28.1 0.7 59.9 57.4 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.1 28.9 1.2 67.2 62.2 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 31.3 30.6 28.6 0.8 60.6 59.3 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 30.7 30.6 29.6 1.1 66.5 61.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.8 31.8 29.3 1.4 69.6 64.9 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 25.3 25.1 26.0 1.2 66.1 61.5 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.8 30.0 0.5 57.7 55.4 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------