***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.9 30.0 30.2 0.5 59.5 58.4 28.5 29.5 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.2 29.8 0.0 49.9 51.1 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.1 29.9 -0.1 48.1 49.4 28.2 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 23.8 23.9 28.6 1.3 74.8 69.6 21.4 22.4 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 30.9 30.5 28.8 0.6 61.1 59.6 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 29.6 30.1 27.0 1.5 77.5 72.2 27.5 28.4 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 29.9 29.6 30.2 0.6 62.0 60.2 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 18.6 18.5 27.3 0.9 66.0 63.0 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.4 28.7 0.2 53.8 54.0 28.3 29.2 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.0 29.7 27.6 0.7 63.1 60.9 28.0 29.0 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.9 28.9 0.5 59.0 58.0 28.4 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.4 28.8 0.8 63.8 61.6 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 30.8 30.6 28.6 0.8 64.9 62.7 28.8 29.7 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.1 28.0 0.2 53.2 53.2 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 31.3 31.4 30.9 1.4 74.7 70.6 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 31.5 31.4 28.9 0.9 65.9 63.3 29.4 30.4 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 29.5 29.1 29.9 0.5 61.5 60.0 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.0 27.0 1.1 69.8 65.8 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.3 29.5 -0.4 41.6 44.3 27.8 28.8 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.2 25.5 25.2 1.4 76.3 70.6 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.7 29.7 0.4 57.0 56.4 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.3 29.6 0.2 55.1 54.8 28.1 29.0 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.2 29.2 -0.7 37.0 40.1 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.0 29.0 28.4 0.4 58.4 57.2 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 30.6 30.4 29.1 0.8 65.7 63.1 28.6 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.7 30.3 28.6 0.9 66.0 63.3 28.4 29.4 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 30.1 29.8 29.6 0.7 64.7 62.3 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 31.2 31.5 29.6 1.4 76.0 71.0 29.2 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.6 24.6 26.1 1.1 70.3 66.1 22.5 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.0 29.9 0.0 49.8 50.8 28.1 29.1 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------