***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.8 8.3 54.2 48.4 36.8 3.2 7.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.7 9.4 67.5 54.8 41.4 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.3 7.9 48.7 46.2 36.3 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 2.3 4.0 5.9 33.5 36.5 26.4 3.3 7.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.8 3.5 5.3 30.1 34.8 26.8 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 2.0 2.5 4.6 25.2 28.1 21.4 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.1 10.2 74.4 57.3 43.0 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 4.5 5.8 7.3 32.9 33.8 27.4 5.6 11.6 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.5 6.8 39.2 40.8 31.7 2.9 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.5 4.7 8.2 36.8 37.5 30.4 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 2.3 2.8 4.7 25.8 32.1 23.6 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 2.1 2.6 4.2 24.5 28.7 21.9 3.4 8.0 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 1.7 1.6 2.4 14.9 22.1 16.5 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.7 9.0 11.2 54.4 48.8 38.6 4.2 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 1.6 2.3 3.1 20.2 31.8 20.4 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 2.2 2.9 4.3 25.8 30.6 22.6 3.3 6.2 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.8 11.8 9.9 73.9 57.4 45.8 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.6 6.0 9.2 39.9 37.9 31.3 4.4 10.8 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.6 10.4 9.5 64.2 53.5 40.4 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 3.0 3.0 7.5 28.9 29.2 24.9 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.6 5.7 6.9 41.3 42.2 33.6 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.4 9.6 68.6 55.9 42.3 3.5 7.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.9 10.7 65.7 54.4 42.0 3.4 8.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.1 7.2 9.3 48.6 45.4 35.2 4.1 8.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.1 7.5 45.4 44.2 32.3 2.9 6.5 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 1.6 1.6 1.9 15.1 21.3 15.7 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.5 7.1 8.8 54.6 48.7 36.2 3.3 7.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 2.3 3.5 4.9 26.8 33.6 23.6 3.3 7.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.2 9.0 8.9 39.0 36.5 30.6 7.6 15.4 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.6 8.7 59.1 51.1 38.9 3.1 7.2 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------