***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.2 14.8 11.7 127.8 72.7 57.0 3.8 7.3 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.3 17.9 12.8 133.2 74.1 60.5 3.8 7.9 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.7 12.5 11.7 111.0 68.3 56.7 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 14.9 9.5 95.2 63.7 47.8 4.7 9.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.7 9.2 93.7 63.6 49.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.9 9.0 9.3 82.2 58.9 42.3 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.8 16.2 11.9 130.5 73.5 58.9 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 19.4 10.0 100.0 64.6 52.1 5.3 11.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.5 9.8 9.6 92.1 62.7 50.2 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 17.4 10.9 101.0 65.3 53.4 4.8 10.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.5 9.1 95.1 62.3 48.6 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.7 7.8 92.4 62.3 48.0 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.7 9.2 8.5 96.3 64.2 46.6 2.1 5.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.7 17.8 15.7 119.1 71.1 60.1 3.1 7.3 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 10.8 7.8 95.4 64.5 44.8 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.6 8.3 92.2 62.9 46.3 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.0 20.1 13.6 138.0 75.0 62.3 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.6 14.0 12.9 99.7 64.8 54.7 5.5 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.5 18.9 12.9 129.0 73.2 60.2 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.7 12.2 98.9 62.2 52.5 5.0 8.9 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.3 11.7 9.7 97.9 64.7 52.0 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.1 16.2 14.9 140.6 75.8 63.5 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.8 14.4 12.7 120.0 71.0 58.1 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.7 17.0 12.8 99.9 65.1 54.9 6.0 10.8 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.3 16.3 12.3 118.6 70.5 55.9 3.5 7.7 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.7 6.4 71.8 53.4 38.4 2.4 5.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.2 17.5 12.9 125.1 72.0 57.2 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.2 8.6 96.6 64.9 46.0 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.5 18.2 14.3 99.2 63.5 53.9 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.1 11.2 11.9 123.3 71.8 59.6 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------