***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.6 9.9 7.5 98.1 64.9 42.2 2.8 5.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.0 11.5 7.8 98.6 64.9 41.6 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.3 6.8 88.1 61.6 40.7 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.9 12.7 7.1 92.9 63.3 32.7 3.5 7.7 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 1.9 8.8 7.1 103.8 66.5 33.5 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.2 12.8 7.6 87.0 61.8 37.0 4.6 8.7 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.1 9.2 8.4 104.5 66.9 41.3 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 4.1 11.9 6.9 86.7 60.8 35.2 4.7 8.6 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 2.8 11.1 7.2 90.3 62.4 34.5 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 4.0 12.7 7.7 87.9 61.4 35.9 4.7 8.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 2.5 10.9 6.1 105.3 66.7 33.2 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.0 9.5 5.6 94.9 63.8 33.0 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.7 10.2 6.2 91.3 63.1 32.9 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.3 11.8 8.7 80.4 58.1 37.9 5.1 9.3 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 2.2 11.5 5.8 99.7 65.2 32.4 2.8 6.3 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.2 9.2 5.7 92.9 63.2 30.7 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.8 10.1 8.2 100.5 65.9 41.9 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 4.2 10.1 8.4 76.4 56.8 35.0 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.1 10.6 7.2 90.6 62.2 41.0 3.4 6.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.3 8.5 77.2 55.9 37.7 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 2.7 10.9 6.8 87.4 61.9 35.6 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.6 9.5 7.7 90.9 63.1 42.0 3.0 6.0 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.1 6.9 6.6 80.3 58.4 39.1 2.3 5.1 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 4.0 12.1 7.6 76.5 56.5 35.0 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 2.7 11.4 8.4 99.8 66.2 37.8 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.8 10.1 5.0 95.5 64.4 34.5 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.5 10.5 8.6 103.7 66.9 40.8 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.7 11.6 6.1 87.8 61.7 31.7 3.3 7.4 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 4.3 11.6 9.2 77.9 56.5 36.6 5.1 9.4 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.5 10.2 7.9 100.1 65.4 42.9 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------