***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.1 6.0 4.3 52.9 46.8 31.5 3.2 6.9 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 2.4 5.0 4.1 48.1 45.9 29.7 2.8 5.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.9 7.1 5.0 54.7 48.2 32.7 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.3 7.2 5.8 74.1 57.6 33.4 2.2 5.3 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 1.4 4.4 5.6 72.8 56.7 33.0 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.6 6.1 7.9 79.0 59.6 36.4 1.7 4.0 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.7 6.1 4.1 49.1 46.7 30.5 3.1 7.1 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.0 7.0 73.5 56.7 36.6 2.6 6.0 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 1.8 5.5 5.6 63.4 52.9 33.4 2.0 4.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.1 7.3 70.0 55.3 36.3 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 1.2 5.0 5.6 78.3 59.1 34.0 1.3 3.4 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 1.6 4.2 5.3 72.7 57.0 33.9 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.3 4.6 6.1 79.0 60.0 33.7 1.2 3.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 4.0 9.7 7.9 62.5 53.0 34.4 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.6 5.5 4.4 69.9 56.2 31.4 1.6 4.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 1.3 5.3 5.7 80.7 60.0 33.1 1.5 3.5 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.1 5.7 5.2 62.1 53.0 34.3 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.3 7.7 62.7 51.3 36.3 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.6 4.3 49.8 46.2 30.4 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.8 9.2 77.9 56.7 41.2 2.0 5.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 1.8 5.3 5.1 63.0 52.3 32.9 2.0 4.8 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.4 7.2 5.9 64.9 53.8 34.4 2.7 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.8 5.8 4.9 53.5 47.7 31.3 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 2.6 6.0 6.5 56.3 49.8 33.7 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 1.8 5.0 5.7 70.0 54.9 34.6 1.9 4.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.5 5.2 5.7 88.7 63.5 35.2 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.7 7.8 4.7 55.7 48.3 31.8 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 1.5 4.7 5.4 74.0 57.8 32.8 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.9 8.3 65.2 51.5 37.3 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.3 4.4 3.9 44.4 44.1 29.5 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------