***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.3 35.4 31.8 78.8 51.2 43.4 20.0 34.2 53.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 48.8 45.2 34.0 85.4 54.4 48.5 26.8 41.0 58.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 27.8 38.9 31.4 71.9 47.1 41.8 27.7 41.4 58.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 24.2 36.4 28.4 65.8 45.7 36.6 25.0 41.0 61.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 15.7 24.2 27.1 64.9 45.3 36.3 16.9 27.4 40.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 19.3 28.7 29.4 60.9 38.9 31.5 24.2 37.8 54.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 43.0 41.6 34.6 88.2 55.7 50.3 23.7 36.5 52.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 33.5 46.2 31.2 62.5 41.0 35.1 38.7 55.5 75.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 21.7 32.4 29.1 65.6 44.9 37.6 22.9 36.8 54.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 28.1 39.1 34.0 64.9 42.6 36.7 31.3 45.4 61.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 17.0 27.0 25.4 63.3 43.7 35.5 19.5 32.2 48.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 16.9 26.5 22.8 59.3 41.3 33.5 20.9 33.3 48.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 13.2 21.6 23.2 58.4 41.6 32.0 16.0 27.8 42.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 61.1 49.8 43.5 76.0 47.8 43.8 36.0 52.2 70.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.2 24.4 21.2 59.1 45.2 34.8 15.6 28.9 46.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 15.5 24.9 24.0 62.0 43.1 33.8 18.9 29.5 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 47.8 48.6 37.0 92.6 58.0 52.4 30.0 42.1 56.0 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 33.6 42.4 38.2 64.0 39.4 35.0 37.3 50.9 66.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 50.3 44.1 33.9 82.1 52.8 46.9 25.5 41.2 61.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 26.1 32.5 37.4 62.1 35.1 31.9 31.0 43.7 58.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 27.5 38.0 28.6 67.1 45.6 39.0 28.3 41.9 57.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 45.7 45.8 38.1 90.4 56.7 50.6 28.7 40.5 54.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 42.9 35.8 34.9 79.0 51.1 45.8 20.4 34.5 53.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 36.1 46.3 36.2 67.7 43.4 38.7 38.3 51.8 67.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 22.4 36.2 33.8 77.7 50.5 40.3 23.1 35.6 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 15.0 23.6 19.0 56.7 40.1 31.0 19.1 30.4 44.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 26.8 44.5 34.9 80.9 51.8 42.2 27.7 42.7 60.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 18.2 27.5 24.9 60.4 44.1 34.9 19.4 32.3 48.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 43.2 53.2 40.7 65.5 38.6 34.9 48.4 63.6 80.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 39.5 32.3 32.3 79.0 51.4 45.8 18.6 31.3 47.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------