***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 16.7 17.6 21.3 2.2 86.8 80.2 14.8 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.7 20.1 1.0 70.5 65.6 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.8 19.6 21.1 1.8 82.9 76.8 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 14.9 16.3 19.3 2.3 89.7 83.7 12.5 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 15.3 16.5 19.5 2.3 90.1 84.1 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 14.7 16.0 17.6 2.6 94.1 89.7 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 17.1 17.6 20.8 1.6 80.2 74.3 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 10.0 11.2 17.3 2.3 91.6 86.5 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.9 20.3 2.5 93.0 86.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 16.4 17.5 18.2 2.3 91.7 85.7 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 16.2 17.2 18.9 2.2 89.9 84.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 14.6 15.7 18.4 2.5 92.0 87.2 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 15.7 17.1 18.3 2.4 93.6 88.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.4 19.0 1.4 80.0 73.8 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 18.3 20.0 21.9 3.0 95.9 90.6 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 16.9 18.2 19.0 2.4 92.4 87.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.9 17.0 19.1 0.5 60.8 58.4 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.9 15.9 16.9 1.8 86.7 80.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.9 20.4 1.4 75.7 70.1 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 11.0 11.8 14.6 1.7 85.7 80.7 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 16.4 17.3 21.3 2.3 88.6 82.5 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.1 19.6 0.8 65.9 62.6 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 16.1 17.0 21.0 2.0 85.9 79.4 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 16.9 17.5 19.1 1.8 84.5 78.4 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 16.5 17.5 20.5 2.3 88.5 82.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 15.7 17.2 17.9 2.8 95.0 90.4 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 16.7 18.0 20.7 2.2 87.5 80.9 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 15.7 16.9 20.4 2.6 92.4 87.1 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 14.2 15.1 16.1 1.7 86.8 80.8 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.9 17.4 21.0 1.6 79.6 73.6 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------