***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 17.2 17.7 21.1 1.9 81.5 74.5 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 17.1 17.5 20.9 1.5 76.6 70.4 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 19.3 19.7 20.7 1.4 75.9 69.9 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.6 18.2 0.9 68.7 65.0 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.8 17.8 1.0 69.1 65.3 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.3 16.0 0.8 68.8 65.2 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.2 17.7 21.0 1.6 77.4 71.1 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 10.4 11.1 16.5 1.7 83.0 76.5 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 16.8 17.0 18.4 1.3 74.9 69.1 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 16.8 17.2 16.9 1.4 78.3 72.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.4 17.4 1.1 71.1 67.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.5 14.9 17.4 1.4 78.2 72.7 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.5 16.2 0.8 67.9 64.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.6 18.4 1.3 75.7 69.8 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 17.9 18.1 19.3 1.2 74.0 68.8 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 17.2 17.0 16.9 0.7 64.5 61.7 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.5 17.5 20.0 1.1 70.0 65.1 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.5 16.2 1.3 77.1 70.9 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.0 17.4 20.8 1.5 77.4 71.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.2 11.5 14.4 1.2 76.0 70.9 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 16.6 16.9 19.9 1.5 76.8 70.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.4 19.8 1.0 68.1 63.7 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 16.5 17.0 20.5 1.6 80.1 73.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.4 18.3 1.3 76.7 70.5 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 17.1 17.6 19.4 1.6 80.3 73.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.7 16.0 16.8 1.2 76.2 71.0 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 17.6 18.4 20.2 1.9 82.4 75.4 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.5 18.6 0.9 68.0 64.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.6 15.5 1.3 77.0 70.9 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.4 17.9 21.2 1.6 77.7 71.4 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------