***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 16.7 17.3 20.8 1.8 82.9 73.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.7 20.7 1.6 78.7 69.7 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.8 19.2 20.4 1.4 76.4 68.9 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.9 15.1 18.2 1.2 72.7 67.3 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.3 17.8 1.2 73.1 67.6 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.2 16.0 1.1 73.7 67.0 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 16.5 17.0 20.8 1.7 80.6 71.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.7 16.2 1.5 80.4 73.0 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.6 18.2 1.4 76.6 69.9 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.5 16.6 1.4 76.9 70.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.9 17.4 1.3 74.7 69.0 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.3 17.3 1.6 80.6 73.3 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.3 16.3 1.2 75.2 68.7 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.6 17.0 18.3 1.4 77.2 69.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.5 19.2 1.4 76.2 69.9 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.7 17.0 1.1 71.9 66.5 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 16.9 17.1 19.8 1.3 74.3 66.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.9 16.1 1.3 77.2 69.6 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.8 20.6 1.5 78.5 69.9 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 10.3 10.6 14.1 1.1 75.0 67.9 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 16.0 16.3 19.6 1.4 77.6 70.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.9 19.8 1.2 73.9 65.9 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.2 20.3 1.6 80.2 71.7 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.9 18.1 1.4 76.9 69.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 16.3 17.0 19.1 1.7 83.1 74.2 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.5 16.7 1.3 76.8 70.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.6 20.0 1.9 85.1 75.2 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.1 18.6 1.1 70.9 65.8 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.5 15.4 1.4 78.2 69.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.6 17.1 21.0 1.6 79.6 70.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------