***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.7 19.9 1.4 74.0 66.6 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.4 19.8 1.1 68.7 62.4 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.8 19.6 1.0 67.9 62.3 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.5 17.3 0.7 64.0 59.8 12.4 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.3 16.9 0.8 65.8 61.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.6 15.2 0.8 67.4 62.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.7 19.9 1.2 70.7 63.7 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 8.9 9.9 15.3 1.2 74.0 67.5 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.7 17.3 1.1 70.6 65.0 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.5 15.7 1.0 69.9 64.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.9 16.4 0.8 66.7 62.0 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 13.1 13.5 16.4 1.2 74.9 68.4 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.3 15.5 0.9 69.6 65.2 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.4 17.4 1.0 69.9 64.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.8 18.2 0.9 66.9 62.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.0 16.2 0.7 65.5 61.3 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.6 18.9 0.8 65.0 59.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.9 15.1 1.0 70.2 64.3 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.2 19.7 1.1 68.9 62.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.7 13.2 0.9 68.3 62.7 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.5 18.8 1.2 70.8 64.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.4 18.9 0.9 65.4 60.3 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.7 19.3 1.2 71.1 64.6 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.8 17.2 1.0 69.8 64.0 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.3 18.2 1.3 73.9 66.6 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.9 16.0 1.2 74.0 68.2 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 17.0 17.5 19.1 1.4 75.4 67.3 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.1 17.6 0.7 63.0 59.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 14.1 14.4 1.0 69.8 64.1 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.8 20.0 1.2 69.6 63.2 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------