***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 16.6 17.3 20.8 1.8 89.9 83.6 15.3 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.8 20.4 1.3 81.4 75.2 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 18.7 19.2 20.4 1.4 83.4 77.6 17.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 14.5 15.0 18.3 1.3 81.9 77.0 12.9 13.6 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 14.9 15.3 18.0 1.3 82.5 77.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 13.9 14.4 16.2 1.3 86.0 80.8 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.2 20.6 1.5 85.0 78.8 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 9.8 10.5 16.3 1.7 90.5 84.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 16.1 16.7 18.6 1.6 87.4 81.7 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 16.0 16.5 16.8 1.5 87.6 81.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 15.6 16.0 17.5 1.3 83.3 78.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 13.8 14.4 17.4 1.7 89.7 84.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 14.9 15.4 16.6 1.3 86.1 80.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 16.6 16.9 18.3 1.3 83.6 77.5 15.6 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 17.4 18.1 19.7 1.6 87.7 82.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 16.5 16.8 17.3 1.2 82.2 77.4 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 16.8 17.0 19.5 0.9 74.7 69.3 15.8 16.3 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 14.4 14.9 16.1 1.4 86.0 79.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 16.3 16.7 20.4 1.4 83.2 76.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 10.3 10.7 14.1 1.2 85.5 79.5 9.2 9.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.9 16.4 19.9 1.6 86.9 81.0 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.9 19.5 1.0 75.5 70.0 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 15.7 16.2 20.3 1.6 87.5 81.0 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 16.3 16.7 18.2 1.4 84.6 78.6 15.3 15.7 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 16.2 16.8 19.3 1.7 89.8 84.0 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 15.1 15.7 16.9 1.6 90.8 84.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 16.6 17.5 20.0 1.9 90.8 84.7 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 15.0 15.4 18.8 1.3 82.3 77.5 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 13.8 14.4 15.4 1.3 86.3 79.9 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.7 17.1 20.8 1.5 84.5 78.3 15.5 16.0 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------