***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 31.2 32.4 32.7 3.2 85.6 82.0 27.7 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.3 32.2 2.2 75.4 72.4 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 30.8 31.8 32.5 2.8 80.7 77.5 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 24.7 26.1 31.1 3.6 87.2 84.3 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 31.7 33.1 31.6 3.6 86.1 83.1 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 30.4 32.2 29.7 4.1 90.2 87.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.4 32.3 2.4 78.1 74.7 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 19.6 21.5 30.2 4.4 91.1 87.9 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 31.2 32.8 32.4 3.7 87.6 84.3 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 31.1 32.9 30.8 4.1 89.4 85.9 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 31.4 33.0 31.4 3.8 87.7 84.7 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 30.7 32.8 31.4 4.5 91.3 88.3 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 31.7 33.6 31.5 4.4 90.8 87.8 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 30.4 31.0 30.4 2.5 77.9 74.7 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 32.3 34.1 33.8 4.1 91.4 88.4 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 32.5 34.2 31.6 4.0 88.7 85.8 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 30.2 30.0 30.9 1.3 66.3 64.5 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 29.9 31.5 29.5 3.8 87.6 83.9 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 30.4 31.0 32.3 2.5 77.8 74.5 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 25.9 27.7 27.8 4.0 89.2 85.8 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 31.2 32.5 32.9 3.4 84.8 81.6 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 30.4 30.3 30.7 1.3 66.0 64.2 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 30.5 31.6 32.5 3.1 83.0 79.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 30.3 31.4 30.9 3.1 82.4 79.1 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 31.5 33.0 31.8 3.5 86.7 83.3 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.3 33.4 31.3 4.6 92.3 89.5 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 31.0 32.3 32.1 3.3 86.2 82.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 32.1 33.5 32.3 3.7 88.0 85.2 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 25.3 27.0 28.7 3.8 87.8 83.9 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 30.8 31.6 32.6 2.6 79.5 76.1 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------