***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 31.6 31.7 31.4 1.9 72.3 66.4 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 30.8 30.9 31.5 1.8 70.4 64.7 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 31.0 30.9 31.2 1.7 69.6 64.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 24.2 24.2 29.5 1.4 67.5 62.8 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 31.8 31.8 29.4 1.5 68.2 63.3 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.5 27.4 1.7 72.2 66.2 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.6 30.6 31.4 1.9 71.0 65.0 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.4 19.9 28.1 2.1 74.3 67.4 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.1 29.8 1.8 70.5 65.0 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 30.8 31.1 28.6 1.9 72.2 66.0 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 31.3 31.4 29.1 1.7 70.4 64.9 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.6 31.1 29.4 2.1 74.5 68.0 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 31.6 32.0 28.8 1.9 72.8 66.9 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.8 29.3 2.0 71.8 65.8 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.5 31.7 30.2 1.7 71.0 65.7 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 32.3 32.4 29.0 1.6 69.8 64.5 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 29.9 29.9 30.8 1.5 67.3 62.2 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.8 30.1 27.8 2.1 72.9 66.4 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 30.5 30.6 31.5 1.9 70.9 65.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 26.0 26.2 25.7 1.9 72.4 65.6 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 31.2 31.1 30.6 1.7 69.7 64.5 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.6 30.5 30.6 1.5 67.5 62.5 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.6 31.2 2.1 72.3 66.4 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.6 29.4 2.0 71.8 65.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 31.3 31.5 29.7 1.8 71.7 65.9 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 31.2 31.7 29.0 1.9 73.5 67.3 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.1 30.6 2.0 73.4 67.1 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 31.7 31.6 29.8 1.4 68.0 63.3 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 25.4 25.7 26.8 2.0 73.0 66.3 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 30.8 30.9 31.6 1.9 71.0 65.2 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------